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  • Tension-Filled Black Holes
    Most matter pushes against nearby matter, via a positive “pressure.” That’s why Earth holds its shape, instead of collapsing down to a point mass.
  • Hidden Open Thread 354.5
  • You Can Buy A Malaria Net
    2024 election takes
  • How I'd like Democrats to Change
    A wishlist
  • Providing Closure for Election Day
    'Twas a Republican sweep. At least we have funny tweets? A politics update by Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
  • Updates for EAGxVirtual 2024: Speakers, programs, etc
    TL;DR: EAGxVirtual 2024 (15–17 November) is coming up in less than 2 weeks! This free, online conference is an opportunity to learn from and meet with EAs in 75+ different countries. Applications are open until 14 Nov!. Apply now—. In our announcement post, we explained why we are hosting EAGxVirtual on 15–17 November – to connect the global EA community.
  • THL is hiring a UK Temporary Animal Welfare Specialist!
    Hi all,. The primary focus of this position is to deliver advice on farm animal welfare science to inform animal welfare campaigns and corporate engagement efforts. This requires extensive research and close collaboration with other organizations in the Open Wing Alliance (a global coalition of animal protection groups) to prepare for meetings with food companies and strategize on advocacy...
  • Public Libraries
    Wednesday, November 6
  • Don't Freak Out About The Election
    The case for cautious optimism
  • Faunalytics Index – November 2024
    This month's Faunalytics Index provides facts and stats about companion animal care costs, the environmental impact of fur, shrimp farming, and more. The post Faunalytics Index – November 2024 appeared first on Faunalytics.
  • Risk Aversion In Wild Animal Welfare
    Human intervention in wild animal welfare is a complex issue within animal ethics. Depending on your risk tolerance, certain interventions on behalf of wild animals may be more justifiable. The post Risk Aversion In Wild Animal Welfare appeared first on Faunalytics.
  • Advisors for Smaller Major Donors?
    Discuss...
  • Politics and the EA Forum
    About three hours ago I posted a brief argument about why one of the US presidential candidates is strongly preferable to the other on five criteria of concern to EAs: AI governance, nuclear war prevention, climate change, pandemic preparedness and overall concern for people living outside the United States.
  • What Trump means for AI safety
    A repeal of last year's executive order, for one thing
  • EA Forum Digest #214
    EA Forum Digest #214 Hello!. Funding Strategy Week is now underway on the Forum (until 10th Nov), follow the link to see all the posts that have been published so far. We’re particularly interested in hearing from people who have lost funding from Good Ventures, so consider contributing to this thread if this describes you.
  • Why I Didn't Vote
    This is not advice
  • Can ranking candidates fix elections?
    Tuesday might have been the last traditional Election Day of my life in Washington, DC, where I’ve been voting for the past 12 years. The ballot included Initiative 83, a measure adopting ranked choice voting (RCV); it passed overwhelmingly. While it’s possible that the DC government could just refuse to implement the measure (they’ve done […]...
  • Forecasting newsletter: US elections
    Huge US election volumes, Robinhood added presidential prediction markets, Richard Ngo on why he is not a Bayesian.
  • IoT Devices in Password-Spraying Botnet
    Microsoft is warning Azure cloud users that a Chinese controlled botnet is engaging in “highly evasive” password spraying. Not sure about the “highly evasive” part; the techniques seem basically what you get in a distributed password-guessing attack:
  • Expectations Scale with Scale – We Should Be More Scope-Sensitive in Our Funding
    TLDR: The shortest version of this argument is very simple: your expectations for an organization should be higher where their budget and staff size are higher. In other words, we should have different expectations for a 20-person organization with a $1.5 million budget than a 2-person $150,000 budget organization.
  • Animal Charity Evaluators is hosting a live AMA
    Hi! We're researchers from Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE), a 501(c)(3) non-profit that uses evidence and reason to help people help animals. We conduct charity evaluations to identify the organizations that will likely make the most significant difference for animals.
  • Delivering Solutions: An Interim Report of Expert Insights for France’s 2025 AI Action Summit
    We share initial findings from 84 global experts who contributed to the first part of our open consultation for France's 2025 AI Action Summit, revealing four key shifts needed in AI governance and concrete recommendations for action. The complete analysis will be presented at The Athens Roundtable on December 9.
  • I see the light
    In my upbringing there was a deep sectarian division between the neds and the moshers. 1. I was mosherlike (by default, being weird) but had some ned friends. We would drive around the country lanes doing “circuits”, aimless circles looking for someone else wanting to race. They would blast happy hardcore and trance: “dance” music.
  • Transformer++
    People have tweaked the decoder-only Transformer architecture enough in 4 years that we’re apparently now calling the current recipe “ Transformer++”. i.e. a Transformer but with. a fused attention implementation (the scaled dot-product backend -> FlashAttention). Subquadratic memory complexity in input sequence length. Practically: can double GPU utilization and so halve training time.
  • OpenAI robotics 🤖, Anthropic's price hike 📈, software only moves forward 👨‍💻
  • the true meaning of election night
    A preview of what Election Night will look like, and my relationship with politics, interspersed. By Jacob Cohen (@Conflux).
  • The Inter-American Development Bank and J-PAL LAC Launch Collaborative Visiting Program to Foster Evidence-Based Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean
    The Inter-American Development Bank and J-PAL LAC Launch Collaborative Visiting Program to Foster Evidence-Based Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab Latin America and the Caribbean (J-PAL LAC) have officially launched a new Visiting Researcher Program, marking a new phase in the strategic...
  • Love Your Neighbor Of Opposite Politics
    I hear there was some famous guy who was big on the whole loving your neighbor thing
  • The AI Summit Series: What Should Its Niche Be? | GovAI Blog
    To succeed in a crowded international governance landscape, the AI Summit Series needs a clearly defined niche. Its defining traits should be that it: (a) invites companies and civil society to...
  • Species-Appropriate Natural Behaviors And Utopia
    In favor of minimally competent utopia design
  • Effective Messaging For Sharks
    Some marine animals were historically feared but are now more favored and protected. Is it possible to also improve the social standing of sharks, who currently face significant bias?. The post Effective Messaging For Sharks appeared first on Faunalytics.
  • Links in Progress: Expanding the Mediterranean's busiest port
    Plus: New tunnels, monorails, canals, small modular reactors, and horseless carriages
  • Remembering Joseph Rotblat (born on this day in 1908)
    Joseph Rotblat was born in Warsaw on November 4, 1908. He is one of the advisors I’d like to have on my shoulder, so on his birthday, I want to share a bit about his life and reflect on it. As a brief overview, Rotblat: Was the only scientist to leave the Manhattan Project on moral grounds.
  • On Self-Respect Pt. 6
    Tuesday, November 5
  • AIs Discovering Vulnerabilities
    I’ve been writing about the possibility of AIs automatically discovering code vulnerabilities since at least 2018. This is an ongoing area of research: AIs doing source code scanning, AIs finding zero-days in the wild, and everything in between. The AIs aren’t very good at it yet, but they’re getting better. Here’s some anecdotal data from this summer:
  • 2024 November EA Updates
    EAGx Virtual and EA conferences around the world
  • CEO Diaries: Six Months of Wins, Challenges, and Growth
    Since stepping into the role of CEO at PxD in April, the past six months have been a whirlwind – challenging, rewarding and full of momentum. As I reflect on all the things we’ve accomplished.... Read more. The post CEO Diaries: Six Months of Wins, Challenges, and Growth appeared first on Precision Development.
  • Strengthening Community Health in Uganda: New Strategies and Guidelines for VHTs and CHEWs under the BIRCH Project
  • Mantic Monday: Judgment Day
  • Food Policy Pathways is hiring - Program Director
    [Food Policy Pathways is launching in January! In order to have a successful launch, I'm hoping to have a full team (we plan to be a 3-person operation). To do that, I'd love your help in hiring our third staffer. Please forward this to folks, but please do not post on LinkedIn as we have not launched and I want to make sure that algorithmic traffic comes in January.
  • Has your organisation lost funding due to the Good Ventures funding shift? Have you managed to replace it?
    In June this year, Good Ventures announced that it would stop supporting certain sub-causes, and not expand into new cause areas by default. Neither Good Ventures nor Open Philanthropy included a public list of the sub-causes or organisations they were no longer supporting.
  • ProVeg is hiring – Head of Finance
    ProVeg is looking to fill the following position: Head of Finance. About ProVeg. ProVeg International is a food awareness organisation working to transform the global food system by replacing animal-based products with plant-based and cultured alternatives.
  • Victory! Hardee's/CKE Restaurants Reporting Cage-Free Progress!
    Hello Fast! Following a relentless 7-month cage-free accountability campaign led by The Humane League, Hardee's is now reporting its cage-free progress for all US locations! Additionally, parent company CKE Restaurants is reporting progress for Hardee's and Carl's Jr's international locations! Carl's Jr reported achieving 100% cage-free fulfillment in the US in July 2024.
  • Apple smart glasses 👓, OpenAI o1 leaks 🤖, xAI API launches 👨‍💻
  • Announcement: Animal Charity Evaluators is hosting an AMA on November 19 at 8-10am PT
    Hi! We're researchers from Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE), a 501(c)(3) non-profit that uses evidence and reason to help people help animals. We conduct charity evaluations to identify the organizations that will likely make the most significant difference for animals.
  • Undecided voters could swing this U.S. election, but who are they?
    The US presidential election is imminent. Given the amount of polarization and partisan sorting of political issues in the US, you might...
  • Why I Swapped My Vote and Why You Should Too
    Probably the most impactful thing you can do about the presidential election right now
  • Special Issue: Election Violence
    In partnership with Search for Common Ground We are days away from the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The United States faces a real threat of election violence—defined by research featured in this special issue as “coercive force, directed towards electoral actors and/or objects, that occurs in the context of electoral competition.” It’s an almost unimaginable... Read more.
  • Lessons from Practice: What Can Prevent Election Violence?
    We have thus far extensively reviewed the drivers and wider effects of election violence with a special focus on how it’s experienced in the U.S. A deep understanding of the research on election violence highlights possible prevention and mitigation strategies. For instance, understanding that toxic polarization is characterized by the dehumanization of “the other” highlights... Read more.
  • What Are the Wider Effects of Election Violence?
    Much of the existing research on election violence focuses on what causes it and what it entails. Physical attacks, threats, and harassment are forms of violence widely described in examples of election violence. Feminist scholars suggest that there is an undercounting of psychological forms of election violence (the form of violence experienced more commonly by... Read more.
  • What Drives Election Violence?
    In the wake of violence, a few common questions tend to dominate public discourse: Why did this happen? What caused this? These are worthwhile questions that we will address below in this review of the drivers of election violence and other forms of political violence, with a particular focus on the U.S. context. But, first,... Read more. The post What Drives Election Violence?
  • Helping Children and Families Live Healthier
    Helping Children and Families Live Healthier Helen Keller Intl believes in a world where no one is deprived of the opportunity to live a healthy life and reach their true potential. Working with our global community, we’re supporting millions of families across Africa, Asia, and the United States to overcome barriers to good health, sound nutrition, […].
  • The Effects of Political Polarization on Political Violence in the U.S. and Other Democracies
    This analysis summarizes and reflects on the following research: Citation: Piazza, J. A. (2023). Political polarization and political violence. Security Studies, 32(3), 476-504. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2023.2225780 Talking Points Political polarization makes support for and the occurrence of political violence more likely.
  • In case you haven't registered for the Second Latin American Congress on Animal Rights – ARBA
    Hello everyone!. We invite you to the 2nd Latin American Congress on Animal Rights – ARBA 2024 in case you haven't been able to register yet!. This congress will bring together eight important professional experts who carry out important work as defenders of animal rights in Latin America (Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil and Peru).
  • Support for Political Violence in the United States
    This analysis summarizes and reflects on the following research: Armaly, M. T., & Enders, A. M. (2024). Who supports political violence? Perspectives on Politics, 22(2), 427-444. doi:10.1017/S1537592722001086 Talking Points  Among a surveyed U.S. public:  People who feel like victims (“perceived victimhood”), have authoritarian or populist beliefs, strongly identify with being white, or have...
  • Ten Reasons To Support Harris
    For democracy, against AIDS, lead, and factory farming
  • Linkpost for November
    Effective altruism, happiness, writing, social justice, science, short stories, fun.
  • The current state of RSPs
    The idea of responsible scaling policies is now over a year old. Anthropic, OpenAI, and DeepMind each have something like an RSP, and several other relevant companies have committed to publish RSPs by February.
  • The HomeWork: November 4, 2024
    Welcome to the November 4, 2024 Main edition of The Homework, the official newsletter of California YIMBY — legislative updates, news clips, housing research and analysis, and the latest writings from the California YIMBY team. News from Sacramento We are…. The post The HomeWork: November <span class="dewidow">4, 2024</span> appeared first on California YIMBY.
  • The Price Of Welfare: Monetizing Animal Lives For Better Policies
    This paper introduces a method to monetize animal welfare, allowing animal lives to be considered alongside human interests in policy analyses. The post The Price Of Welfare: Monetizing Animal Lives For Better Policies appeared first on Faunalytics.
  • Forward from Search for Common Ground
    Voters across the United States will go to the polls on November 5th to vote for their 47th President, a new Congress, and thousands of important officials and ballot measures at the state and local levels. The Presidential election is forecasted to be close, and the run-up has been marked by one of the largest... Read more.
  • Funding Diversification is a Tradeoff
    TL;DR: I think funding diversification is an easy thing to pitch as positive, but it comes with real tradeoffs to growth and time spent fundraising. In this post, I go into why I think these trades are not obvious but still end up thinking they are worth making.
  • Valuing Impacts Across Species: A Research Agenda
    Rethink Priorities' Worldview Investigations Team is sharing research agendas that provide overviews of some key research areas as well as projects in those areas that we would be keen to pursue. This is the first of three such agendas to be posted in November 2024. If we want to do the most good per dollar, then we need to measure the value of various outcomes on a common scale.
  • QB: Business and Beneficence
    On doing well from doing good
  • A brief history of the automated corporation
    Looking back from 2041
  • On Self-Respect Pt. 5
    Monday, November 4
  • Import AI 390: LLMs think like people; neural Minecraft; Google's cyberdefense AI
    Do you believe AI will hit a wall?
  • Compassion in World Farming is Hiring: Global Finance Business Partner
    Are you ready to make a difference? Join us as our new Global Finance Business Partner. We’re recruiting a dedicated and skilled Global Finance Business Partner to join our Finance Team. This pivotal role will place you at the heart of our financial operations, where you’ll provide accurate, timely, and impactful financial insights that drive our strategy and support our mission to end...
  • ChinAI #287: Horizon Robotics secures largest Hong Kong IPO of 2024
    The Chinese AI chip firm goes public
  • Sophos Versus the Chinese Hackers
    Really interesting story of Sophos’s five-year war against Chinese hackers.
  • Open Thread 354
  • Letter to a Jewish voter in Pennsylvania
    Election Day Update: For anyone who’s still undecided (?!? ), I can’t beat this from Sam Harris. When I think of Harris winning the presidency this week, it’s like watching a film of a car crash run in reverse: the windshield unshatters; stray objects and bits of metal converge; and defenseless human bodies are hurled into […]...
  • HPV vaccination: How the world can eliminate cervical cancer
    HPV vaccines offer a rare opportunity to effectively eliminate one type of cancer. By taking this opportunity, it’s possible to save hundreds of thousands of women each year.
  • Apple buys Pixelmator 🎨 , Google's Big Sleep 🤖, AI in Hollywood 🎥
  • On Ending TB
    Tuberculosis still kills over 1.2 million people a year. In a two-part essay by Kamal Nahas for Asimov Press, we explore why and how to change that. In the 1924 novel, The Magic Mountain, Thomas Mann describes a sanatorium patient named Anton Ferge as he undergoes a painful tuberculosis (TB) treatment. “I lie there with my face covered, so I can’t see anything,” Anton says.
  • How Far Behind Are Open Models?
  • A New Top Donation Opportunity in Brazil: Save a Life for USD 12.5k
    Tl;dr: doebem’s latest research identifies the distribution of portable micromembrane water filters as a top donation opportunity in Brazil. This solution demonstrates a cost of USD 306 per DALY and USD 12.5k per life saved, making it 5-10 times more cost-effective than other evaluated options and achieving 40% of the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell’s top charities. Context.
  • On Self-Respect Pt. 4
    Sunday, November 3
  • Why our goal should be to end factory farming within our lifetime, and why that goal is realistically achievable
    The sheer scale of factory farming can feel overwhelming. Billions of animals suffer every year in unimaginable conditions. It's easy to feel like our efforts are just a drop in the ocean. But what if I told you that we have a realistic chance of ending this system within our lifetimes? This isn't wishful thinking.
  • Mary's Room Refutes Physicalism
    Let's NOT get physical
  • this week in security — november 3 edition
    this week in security — november 3 edition Sophos reveals years-long Chinese hacks, DOJ takes down Redline, Okta's new auth bypass bug, and more. ~this week in security~. a cybersecurity newsletter by @zackwhittaker 🗳️ volume 7, issue 40 🗳️ View this email in your browser | RSS ~ ~ Ahh, it's good to be back! There's an autumnal crisp in the air.
  • I don’t want children. I do want children. What should I do?
    Your Mileage May Vary is an advice column offering you a new framework for thinking through your ethical dilemmas and philosophical questions. This unconventional column is based on value pluralism — the idea that each of us has multiple values that are equally valid but that often conflict with each other. Here is a Vox reader’s question, […]...
  • Steven Rudich (1961-2024)
    I was sure my next post would be about the election—the sword of Damocles hanging over the United States and civilization as a whole. Instead, I have sad news, but also news that brings memories of warmth, humor, and complexity-theoretic insight. Steven Rudich—professor at Carnegie Mellon, central figure of theoretical computer science since the 1990s, […]...
  • Donation Election Fund Announcement: Matching, Rewards and FAQ.
    The Donation Election Fund is now open! Donate now to make the donation election a bigger deal, promote effective giving conversations, or simply to get your hands on our rewards. Click to donateThe CEA Online Team will match the first $5,000 in donations. Money in the Donation Election Fund will be disbursed to the three winners of the Donation Election (proportionate to their vote).
  • On Self Respect Pt. 3
    Saturday, November 2
  • Hollywood Morality
    Hollywood is good at producing entertainment, especially the kind that involves sex, car chases, and explosions.
  • Weird People of History: George Tiller
    No-- you move
  • Starbucks won’t charge extra for plant-based milk. Other companies should follow.
    Starbucks announced this week that starting November 7, its US and Canada stores will drop extra charges for plant-based milks — including oat, soy, almond, and coconut — that add 70 to 80 cents to a drink’s cost. It’s a change that plant-based food advocates have long campaigned for, citing the dairy industry’s grave animal […]...
  • Freaking out about x-risk doesn’t help; settle in for the long war
    If the world is destroyed, it won’t be our fault and there may have been nothing we could do about it. It will take a lot of people contributing their small part to avert AI danger, and they might not all do it, and we could all end up dead. I work against this outcome because I don’t want it to happen, and I believe I can do some small part to reduce the danger.
  • Psychologie des machines, Intelligence Organoïde et conscience de l’IA – avec Véronique Donard
    ⚠️ Découvrez du contenu EXCLUSIF (pas sur la chaîne) ⚠️ ⇒ https://the-flares.com/y/bonus/ ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Infos complémentaires : sources, références, liens... ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Le contenu vous intéresse ? Abonnez-vous et cliquez sur la 🔔 Vous avez aimé cette vidéo ? Pensez à mettre un 👍 et à la partager.
  • Chaos Theory in Ecology
    One of the reasons I got into chaos theory as a model paradigm shift was the famous Gleick book on chaos. One of the reasons I believed the Gleick book was trustworthy was that its description of chaos in ecology and population biology matched what I learned in college, 25 years later. Recently I learned … Continue reading "Chaos Theory in Ecology"...
  • Data Movement Bottlenecks to Large-Scale Model Training: Scaling Past 1e28 FLOP
    Introduction
  • “Quantifying the Global Burden of Extreme Pain from Cluster Headaches” by Alfredo Parra 🔸
    Warning: This post discusses statistics about extreme pain that may be distressing. While cluster headaches are a neglected, high-impact issue, understanding their true burden requires appreciating the intensity of suffering involved. The pain often reaches levels far beyond typical human experience, making subjective accounts a valuable datapoint until we have robust methods for quantifying...
  • Incentive Infrastructure
    A new idea machine. Humanity needs to incentivize better incentives. We need infrastructure to beat Moloch. We still live in a society with poor outcomes. We spend time, money, and energy on nostrums—ideas that promise to solve problems but have no real impact. Why? Because we fix surface-level.
  • SAE Probing: What is it good for? Absolutely something!
    Subhash and Josh are co-first authors. Work done as part of the two week research sprint in Neel Nanda’s MATS stream. TLDR: We show that dense probes trained on SAE encodings are competitive with traditional activation probing over 60 diverse binary classification datasets. Specifically, we find that SAE probes have advantages with:Low data regimes (~ < 100 training examples).
  • Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Sculpture in Massachusetts Building
    Great blow-up sculpture. Blog moderation policy.
  • GPT-4o Guardrails Gone: Data Poisoning & Jailbreak-Tuning
    Imagine your once reliable, trusty AI assistant suddenly suggesting dangerous actions or spreading misinformation. This is a growing threat as large language models (LLMs) become more capable and pervasive. The culprit? Data poisoning, where LLMs are trained on corrupted or harmful data, potentially turning powerful tools into dangerous liabilities. Our new jailbreak-tuning data poisoning...
  • Unrepresentative Sample: How Public Meetings Weaken Fair Housing Outcomes
    The practice of inviting the public to comment on proposed projects in long, often-contentious meetings is a hallmark of American urban planning practice in the post urban renewal age. However, recent research out of Boston suggests that the public that….
  • Cruel Musical Chairs: How to Talk About Housing Supply (HINT: use video)
    Image from Video: Cruel Musical Chairs (or Why Is Rent So High? ), by Dan Bertolet, Copyright 2017 Sightline Institute; used with permission. Despite the expert consensus that building more homes reduces housing prices, a significant portion of the public remains….
  • Winning is underrated in grassroots movements
    Why I think grassroots campaigns should focus more on winning over being bold

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